Intermediate Unit 10
Intermediate · Grammar Reference
Unit 10 — Modal Verbs II — Probability
must/can't · may/might/could · present and past probability
10.1  Probability in the present and future

Modal auxiliary verbs can express ability, obligation, permission, and request. They can also express probability, or how certain a situation is.

must and can't — logical deduction

Must = logically probable. Can't = logically impossible.

He must be exhausted. He hasn't slept for 24 hours!Sue can't have a ten-year-old daughter! She's only 24!Aren't they answering? They must be in bed.
may / might / could — possible but uncertain
He might be lost. Or he may be stuck in traffic.Dave and Beth aren't at home. They could be at the concert, I suppose.

The continuous infinitive is formed with be + -ing.

You must be joking!   They can't still be eating!   Peter might be working late.
10.2  Asking about possibilities

Question forms with modal verbs of probability (e.g. Might she be … ?) are unusual. We usually use Do you think … ?

Do you think she's married? — 'She can't be.'Where do you think he's from? — 'He might be Portuguese.'
📌 Note
If you use a modal verb in the question, it will usually still come after Do you think … ?: Do you think he might be Portuguese?
10.3  Probability in the past

The perfect infinitive (have + past participle) is used for probability in the past.

He must have caught a later train.They might have lost our phone number.
ModalMeaningExample
must havealmost certain (logical deduction)He must have been exhausted.
can't havelogically impossibleShe can't have told him about us yet.
may/might havepossible (uncertain)The letter may have got lost.
could havepossible (less definite)He might have changed his mind.

The continuous perfect infinitive is formed with have + been + -ing.

She must have been joking.   They can't have been trying very hard.